Indonesia - why there is no recession in the world's leading Muslim economy

By: Terry Lacey

Following the election of US President-elect Barack Obama there is likely to be a slow recovery in confidence in the United States financial and banking system. A recession is unavoidable in the US and EU, but with only a downturn in developing countries. This crisis of confidence in the Western banking and financial system comes during the dying days of the most unpopular American presidency in living memory. Financial mismanagement and weak regulatory frameworks have devastated the US economy, making the rich richer and the poor poorer. Two million Americans may lose their homes. Millions in the US and Europe will lose their jobs.

Yet the devastating legacy of the Bush presidency leaves open great opportunities for Indonesia, the Muslim world and the developing countries of the South.
Indonesia can play a key role in leading the Muslim world toward economic recovery, and help minimize the impact of global recession.

First, by managing its national economy to maintain growth, demand, imports and exports. The nominal Gross Domestic Product for 2009 is projected at $547 billion. Indonesia is already in the top 20 economies of the world.

Indonesia is currently overtaking Belgium and Sweden. It will soon overtake Turkey, the Netherlands and Austria as it enormous size, resources and population come into play. It is a strong candidate to join the top 10 economies in the world within two decades.

Second, by mobilizing investment for oil, gas, energy projects, biofuels, infrastructure (roads, railways, ports), manufacturing and retailing sectors. It needs over $40 billion for electricity alone, to finance an additional 40,000 MWe of power by 2025. Indonesia will become a nuclear power, and plans four power stations. Total foreign investment needed overall during the next 15 years exceeds $100 billion.

Investment is still coming from the US and EU (including Eastern Europe) but increasingly from the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), and also from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries like Canada, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and from Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states (including Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand). Investment is also coming in greater volume from the Gulf Arab states, Israel and South Africa.

Third, Indonesia can help lead Muslim economies by using its economic size and prestige as a member of the United Nations Security Council to join Brazil, Russia, India, China and Southern countries to bring about changes in policies and in the balance of power in world organizations dealing with trade, finance and development, especially the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO).

Indonesia has major reservations about the IMF following its own experience in 1998. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said that the world should not slip into creating a shadow world economic government run by an inner IMF council. Indonesia is also tired of being kept on the fringes in the WTO.

Asia and Southern countries want a new deal. Muslim countries collectively represent an increasingly important source of capital, while Western liquidity has partly dried up. Muslim economies represent important investment sources as well as investment destinations. The collective size of Muslim economies represents significant demand for Western goods and services, relatively unaffected by the recession in the West.

Indonesia can still deploy export credits, sovereign funds, Islamic finance and other non-traditional financial sources, such as environmental funds and carbon credits. Despite the global downturn Indonesia is still pulling in some bank finance.

A $140 million syndicated loan for Excelcomindo for telecommunications expansion was announced recently. Low-cost airline Lion Air is buying 12 Boeing 737 planes even though the required local cash contribution for the last four has risen to 30 percent. Lion Air will use its own cash to carry on expanding. St. Miguel Corp. of the Philippines is competing with a US-led consortium to clinch a $1.3 billion coal supply deal, to buy PT Bumi Resources from Bakri Brothers. There is money here and money coming in.

Standard and Poors is holding Indonesian credit ratings stable and its credit rating may even be raised. Singapore could slip into recession but Indonesia will not, and the reason is mostly sheer size plus improved financial and economic management.

Indonesia is in a key position as the largest Muslim country in the world with a population of 230 million and a land area of 1.9 million square kilometers.

The Indonesian Gross Domestic Product was $843.7 billion in terms of purchasing power and $432.9 billion in terms of official exchange rates in 2007. It has fixed foreign investment of $57.6 billion and holds $9 billion of investment in other countries. It has more than 3,500 millionaires holding over $100 million each, of whom 70 percent live in Jakarta.

Its current economic growth is 6.5 percent and may fall below 6 percent in 2009 due to reduced exports. Government will stimulate growth using the national budget which already reached $100 billion in 2008. Government is confident it can hold growth at 6 percent. The World Bank has set aside a $2 billion standby loan for 2009 only to be triggered if growth falls below 5.8 percent.

In 2007 Indonesian exports were $118 billion and imports $86 billion, a trade surplus of $32 billion, and foreign exchange reserves as of this month were $50 billion.

Indonesia has already lost some jobs in sectors like textiles. Some exports to the US and Europe fell in the fourth quarter. The stock market, government bonds and the national currency also fell in value during the global financial crash in the first week of October.
The government launched a securities buy-back program spearheaded by state-owned enterprises and defended the rupiah currency by intervening in the currency market via the Bank of Indonesia. The government also took steps to increase liquidity and focused on getting inflation under control and on maintaining growth.

The government has increased guarantees on personal deposits to 2 billion rupiahs ($190,000), which covers 100 percent of deposits for over 99.7 percent of 81 million bank accounts.

Indonesian banks are strong, with adequate reserves, low non-performing loans and almost no exposure to subprime losses. Only a small group of investors lost money on Lehman-related instruments purchased via international banks.

The Indonesian inflation rate is declining from a high of 12 percent to maybe 9 percent by January with reductions planned to between 9 percent and 7 percent for the rest of 2009. The bank rate is being stabilized at 9.5 percent after six months of consecutive rises. It will be held for a while and then reduced to 7.5 percent in 2009.

Indonesian bonds are recovering from their recent nose-dive and the stock market is stabilizing. Local economists say the stock market was over-valued and more normal values and returns will be restored as part of the local share trading cycle.

The government is now focusing on trying to mobilize its massive $115 billion dollar national budget for 2009, up from $100 billion in 2008, to push projects and overall spending forward and help substitute local demand for declines in exports, with every hope of keeping economic growth for 2009 at between 5.5 and 6.0 percent.

Despite the collapse of the Bank of Indonesia subsidiary Indover Bank in the Netherlands, there is no sovereign default. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and the new central bank governor, Boediono, have taken a stand against previous mismanagement.
In contrast to the kid-glove treatment of failed bankers and financial managers in the West, who took imprudent and possibly illegal risks, the Indonesian government is directing the work of its Corruption Eradication Commission and Corruption Court against corrupt central bankers and parliamentarians who took bribes.

The Indonesian government also says it will pursue legally those who misused its name and dragged it into the Indover collapse, by implying there were sovereign guarantees backing Indover borrowing when there were none. It also intends to pursue allegations of short trading and fraudulent practices in the stock exchange.

Indonesia lost 10 years as a result of the 1998 banking crash when it put its fate in the hands of the IMF, which initially failed to understand local strengths and exaggerated local weaknesses. An historical photo shows President Suharto sitting at his desk, signing his own political death-warrant while the IMF representative stood over him, as he signed the IMF agreement.

A lot has changed between the Asian banking crash of 1998 and the Wall Street crash of 2008. The economic balance of power in the world has changed and the balance of global power has shifted to the South and East. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recognized this when he urged the Gulf states and the G20 to help stabilize the world economy.
In the 1998 bank crash Indonesia had no freedom and no choice.

This time in 2008 Indonesia has freedom and is stronger, and can chose to tread its own path. Hopefully its greater strength and determination will inspire Muslim and Southern countries not to panic in the face of recession in the West, but to work together to avoid the spread of recession to the South and to build and strengthen a new world economic order.

Terry Lacey is a development economist who writes from Jakarta, Indonesia, on modernization in the Muslim world, investment and trade relations with the European Union and Islamic banking. This article is published with permission from the author.

Source: DailyStar

Just Stand Up, a song for Cancer Campaign (with lyric)

A lot of high profile superstars join force to contribute their voices for this cancer campaign. They are Mariah Carey, Beyoncé, Mary J. Blige, Rihanna, Fergie, Sheryl Crow, Melissa Etheridge, Ashanti, Natasha Bedingfield, Keyshia Cole, Ciara, LeAnn Rimes, Carrie Underwood, Miley Cyrus and Leona Lewis. The song, "Just Stand Up" is produced by Kenny “Babyface” Edmonds and Antonio “L.A.” Reid





Beyonce: The heart is stronger than you think,
It’s like it can go through anything.
And even when you think it can’t it finds a way to still push on, though

Carrie: Sometimes you want to run away, Ain’t got the patience for the pain
And if you don’t believe it look into, your heart the beat goes on

Rihanna: I’m tellin’ you that,

Rihanna/Miley: Things get better, Through whatever

Rihanna: If you fall, dust it off, don’t let up

Sheryl: Don’t you know you can go be your own miracle

Beyonce: You need to know

CHORUS :
Sheryl: If the mind keeps thinking you’ve had enough, But the heart keeps telling you don’t give up

Sheryl/Beyonce: Who are we to be..questioning, wondering what is what
Don’t give up…THROUGH IT ALL, JUST STAND UP!

Fergie: It’s like we all have better days
Problems getting all up in your face

Leona: Just because you go through it

Fergie: Don’t mean it got to take control, no

Leona: You ain’t gotta find no hiding place

Keyshia: Because the heart can beat the hate

Leona: Don’t wanna let your mind keep playin’ you

Keyshia: And sayin’ you can’t go on

Rihanna: I’m tellin’ you that

Miley: Things get better
Through whatever

Rihanna: If you fall

Miley: Dust if off, don’t let up

LeAnn: Don’t you know you

Natasha: Can go

LeAnn: Be your own

Natasha: Miracle

Carrie: You need to know

Ensemble: CHORUS

Mary: You don’t gotta be a prisoner in your mind

Ciara: If you fall, dust it off

Mary: You can live your life

Rihanna/Carrie: Yeah

Mary: Let your heart be your guide

Rihanna/Carrie: Yeah yeah yeah

Mariah: And you will know that you’re good if you trust in the good

Ashanti: Everything will be alright, yeah
Light up the dark, if you follow your heart

Mary: And it will get better

Mariah: Through whatever

CHORUS

Fergie: You got it in you, find it within
You got in now, find it within now
You got in you, find it within
You got in now, find it within now
You got in you, find it within
Find it within you, find it within

Everyone: THROUGH IT ALL, JUST STAND UP!!

Berlibur sampai bekerja di Australia

Ada kabar gembira bagi Warga Negara Indonesia (WNI) yang akan berlibur ke Australia atau tengah berada di Negeri Kangguru. Jika mengantongi visa berlibur, Anda bisa berlibur sambil bekerja.

"Kalau ada orang kita yang mau berlibur ke Australia bisa kerja selama
visanya berlaku," kata Juru Bicara Deplu Teuku Faizasyah kepada detikcom saat ditemui di kantornya, Gedung Deplu, Jalan Pejambon, Jakarta Pusat pada Jumat 14 November 2008.

Menurut pria yang akrab disapa Faiz ini, rencana itu mendapat dukungan penuh dari pemerintah Indonesia maupun Australia. Kesepakatan diambil dengan penandatanganan work&holiday visa memorandum of understanding yang akan dilakukan pada akhir tahun ini.

"Intinya pemerintah menudukung ini untuk meningkatkan interaksi antar
masyarakat. Sementara untuk detail pelaksanaannya masih dibahas," ujarnya.

Faiz mengatakan, pemberlakuan visa kerja dan libur ini dapat digunakan khususnya bagi para mahasiswa asal Indonesia yang menimba ilmu di Australia.

Ada sekitar 15 ribu siswa Indonesia yang diharapkan bisa mempraktekkan ilmunya dan agar ketika kembali ke tanah air bisa mendapatkan keahlian.

"Mungkin ada peluang untuk mengisi pekerjaan tertentu yang lebih baik sesuai
dengan apa yang mereka pelajari. Jadi sambil berlibur bisa bekerja," kata Faiz.

Faiza menambahkan langkah ini diambil karena pemerintah ingin menarik
keuntungan. Sebab, para mahasiswa yang ada di Australia selama ini bekerja
pada jenis-jenis pekerjaan yang tidak sesuai dengan ilmu yang dipelajari.

Untuk itu, lanjut dia, dengan adanya kesepakatan ini para mahasiswa bisa mendapat pengalaman kerja yang lebih baik.

"Kita menarik dari sisi keahlian dan hasil (uang) yang didapat mungkin bisa
lebih banyak," kata Faiz

Source : detikcom

Jay looks classy at Style Awards 2008

Even though most male stars usually wear a suit matched with a little accessory, but at the Style Awards 2008, not only did Jay Chou's magician look have someone to hold his umbrella he also had Will Liu and his wife closely protecting him, you could say he was had the classiest entrance on the night.

Out of all the celebrities appearing, the classiest of them was Jay Chou who came out last, not only did he have numerous body guards to open the path for him, he also had a special person to hold his umbrella, and he had Will Liu and his wife protecting him at his side. Towards such a big event, Jay Chou didn't think anything was wrong: Today I'm a magician, (Will Liu and his wife) are my assistants. His appearance was indeed worthy of a heavenly king.

"This bear is something I've specially prepared for the Style Awards, then the whole clothing set will look more fashionable." Yesterday night the thing that caught peoples' attention the most when Jay Chou walked on the red carpet was blue bear on the left side of Jay Chou's chest. Backstage when he was asked by reporters why he did this, Jay Chou couldn't hide the smile on his face, "You can see this bear is holding a knife and fork, it represents eating, people have to be happy, when you eat you are happy, when you eat food that's nice you'll feel sweet." Reporters noticed that on the chest of the bear is a music note, it's evident that Jay Chou loves his own music, he admitted, he wants to send the feeling of sweetness to fans and the audience with this, "Good things to eat, good things to listen to, good things to watch, it's all sweet. I want to write sweet songs, film comedies, and make people feel that there's hope in life." When Jay Chou was asked if he would be inviting Jerry Yan into "Kung Fu Dunk 2", suddenly his train of thought was clear, "This one....recently I've had toothache, I haven't been in contact with him. The film will be filmed, but it will take a different shape." Reporters continued their questioning about the film he will direct next year, Jay Chou continued to act "dim", "This is something I can't talk about."

Source: Starnews

Barack Obama's victory speech as a newly elected USA President

Herewith is the full text of president-elect Barack Obama's victory speech Tuesday before a crowd of some 125,000 cheering and tearful supporters:

"If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

"It's the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.

"It's the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.

"It's the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

"It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

"I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he's fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation's promise in the months ahead.

"I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.

"I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last 16 years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation's next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that's coming with us to the White House. And while she's no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.

"To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you've sacrificed to get it done.

"But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to it belongs to you.

"I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn't start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.

"It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people

who rejected the myth of their generation's apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.

"I know you didn't do this just to win an election and I know you didn't do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime, two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century.

"Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they'll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor's bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.

"The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you we as a people will get there.

"There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as president, and we know that government can't solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way
it's been done in America for 221 years block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

"What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.

"So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it's that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.

"Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that have poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, 'We are not enemies, but friends though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection.' And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your president too.

"And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.


"For that is the true genius of America that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

"This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that's on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She's a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing -- Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

"She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn't vote for two reasons because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

"And tonight, I think about all that she's seen throughout her century in America the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can't, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

"At a time when women's voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

"When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.

"When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved.
Yes we can.

"She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that 'We Shall Overcome.' Yes we can.

"A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.

"America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

"This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: "Yes we can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America."

Source: ChannelNewsAsia

Time can answer all the question

I know everyone has a lot of questions they want to ask, and there are a lot of questions waiting for me to go answer, where should I begin? My answer is ‘time’, time can answer everything.
Time will make a boy grow, become mature; time can make a lot of unclear things become clear, time is very important to everyone. During this time, I have had enough time to search for myself, pondering what is most important to me. I have had time to appreciate myself, and do the things I love to do, and I can finally relax being me.

Source: Edison Chen

Beyonce new single - If I were a boy

This is the latest single from Beyonce, titled If i were a boy...
quite nice song, currently @ no 3 in Billboard Top 100 (as per 1 Nov 08 - 08 Nov 08).



Lyrics taken from metrolyrics.

[Verse]
If I were a boy
Even just for a day
I’d roll outta bed in the morning
And throw on what I wanted then go
Drink beer with the guys
And chase after girls
I’d kick it with who I wanted
And I’d never get confronted for it.
Cause they’d stick up for me.

[Chorus]
If I were a boy
I think I could understand
How it feels to love a girl
I swear I’d be a better man.
I’d listen to her
Cause I know how it hurts
When you lose the one you wanted
Cause he’s taken you for granted
And everything you had got destroyed


[Verse]
If I were a boy
I would turn off my phone
Tell everyone it’s broken
So they’d think that I was sleepin’ alone
I’d put myself first
And make the rules as I go
Cause I know that she’d be faithful
Waitin’ for me to come home (to come home)


[Chorus]
If I were a boy
I think I could understand
How it feels to love a girl
I swear I’d be a better man.
I’d listen to her
Cause I know how it hurts
When you lose the one you wanted (wanted)
Cause he’s taken you for granted (granted)
And everything you had got destroyed

[Vamp1]
It’s a little too late for you to come back
Say its just a mistake
Think I’d forgive you like that
If you thought I would wait for you
You thought wrong

[Male]
You know when you act like that
I don't think you realize how it makes me look
or feel

[Beyonce]
Act like what
Why are you so jealous
It's not like i'm sleeping with the guy

[Male]
What

[Beyonce]
What

[Male]
I said yo
Why are you so jealous
It aint like I'm sleepin with the girl

[Vamp2]
But you’re just a boy
You don’t understand
Yeah you don’t understand
How it feels to love a girl someday
You wish you were a better man
You don’t listen to her
You don’t care how it hurts
Until you lose the one you wanted
Cause you’ve taken her for granted
And everything you have got destroyed
But you’re just a boy